Plant-based milk has had an uncomfortable couple of years. Sales have slowed in Britain, the early enthusiasm has faded, and questions about the category's long-term prospects have returned.

GFI Europe's analysis of Circana data found British plant-based milk volumes fell 2.2% in 2025. Even so, the category accounted for 6.9% of milk and dairy-drink volume, while NIQ Homescan data show that 31.3% of British households bought plant-based milk at least once during the year.

A more recent picture comes from Madre Brava, an international climate advocacy organisation campaigning for a greater share of plant-based food in people's diets. Its analysis of NielsenIQ data found UK plant-milk unit sales essentially flat in the first half of 2026, up 0.02%, while oat milk grew 2.7% year on year.

These are different measures and periods. A carton is a unit; its contents are volume. Neither dataset cancels out the other.

There is another useful correction. Madre Brava's Cofounder, Nico Muzi cites a 1.6% decline in dairy-milk volumes. AHDB reports that figure for litres of cows' milk bought in the 12 weeks ending 21 March 2026, compared with the equivalent period a year earlier. It should not be read as a full-year decline, or proof that every lost dairy sale went to plants.

NIQ Homescan data cited by GFI Europe show 31.3% of UK households bought plant-based milk at least once in 2025. That is nearly a third, though it is not the same as a third buying regularly: 10.3% bought it at least 12 times.

Across Europe, the footprint is harder to dismiss. In 2025, plant-based milk and drinks accounted for 9.2% of German retail milk sales volume, according to GFI Europe. The category grew 7.7% in volume. The corresponding shares were 8.5% in Italy, 8.9% in the Netherlands and 10.4% in Spain.

These markets are moving at different speeds. They do not add up to a universal victory or a universal retreat. They do show that plant milk has secured shelf space well beyond its novelty years.

Price remains a gatekeeper. GFI Europe found UK plant-based milk and drinks cost 72% more per litre than their animal-based equivalents in 2025. That average reflects a different mix of branded and own-label products, rather than a matched comparison between identical cartons.

Germany offers a telling contrast. Its average premium was 10%. GFI Europe's June 2026 analysis also reports a tax disadvantage: plant-based milk attracts 19% VAT, compared with 7% for dairy milk. The organisation argues that equalising those rates would bring average prices roughly into line.

Removing that hurdle would not guarantee another boom. Taste, performance and the price on the shelf still have to earn the next purchase. But it complicates the idea that consumers have simply fallen out of love.

Millet, Danone's vice-president of plant-based Europe, has previously spoken to the goods about the future of plant-based food. Now, he points to European plant-based beverage sales up 6.5% in value and 5% in volume in the year to July, from an already record base, with Germany growing at a 15% value rate over the same period. Plant-based products now reach more than 38.5% of European households, he says, with Spain, Germany, Great Britain and Italy all above 40%.

"Plant based milks & Yogurts are very dynamic in Europe, growing fast & consistently in retail and away from home...Naming them 'alternatives' starts to be very outdated, as for many European households those plant-based products are now part of their daily consumption, bringing them healthy & tasty nutrition, combined or not with other protein sources."

Nearly a third of British households bought plant-based milk in 2025, although only around one in ten did so at least 12 times. In Germany, supermarket own-label products already account for most of the category's sales volume.

Plant-based milk is now a fixture in supermarket aisles and coffee shops. But widespread availability doesn't guarantee loyalty. Taste, price and everyday usefulness will determine which brands become part of the weekly shop, and which are left on the shelf.
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^{Featured article image: Quilia / Unsplash}